The “Gray Zone” has arrived. Are your operations ready?

The 2025 Strategic Defence Review highlighted the acute risk posed by Russia to the UK. A recent BBC report highlights a sobering reality for 2026: Hybrid Warfare is no longer a theoretical risk—it is a daily operational challenge. From the disruption of undersea cables to the sophisticated spoofing of GPS signals, the tactics designed to undermine our national resilience are becoming increasingly overt.

The Doctrine of “Gibridnaya Voyna”

To understand the current threat landscape, we must look at its roots. The term gibridnaya voyna (hybrid warfare) is not merely a “new” term for the vocabulary, but now a key risk for organisations to include in their risk planning. The International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) has identified the UK as already being in the top five targets of suspected and confirmed Russian sabotage operations within continental Europe in recent years. This doctrine dictates that the boundary between “peace” and “war” is permanently blurred, putting our domestic infrastructure directly in the crosshairs.

The Reality Check

According to the BBC’s latest analysis, the surge in “sub-threshold” attacks—actions that fall just short of open conflict—is not only a likelihood but academic research indicates is already well underway and which will in future put unprecedented pressure on critical infrastructure and public safety.

What we are seeing on the ground:

• Signal Interference: Over 40% of European air traffic has faced GPS jamming, impacting logistics and precision timing.
• Infrastructure Vulnerability: Targeted sabotage of energy and communication networks.
• Cognitive Warfare: AI-driven disinformation campaigns designed to sow confusion during civil emergencies an elections.

Building 2026 Resilience

At Controlled Events, we believe the answer lies in the “Total Defence” model across both private and public sector and which has to focus on not only resilience planning but crisis management, cyber protection, physical security and facilities management

We are hardening operations through:

1. Crisis and Business Continuity Planning which is focused on frameworks for response and recovery with a focus on consequence management
2. Training programmes for crisis teams, control and coordination functions to strengthen capabilities for teams to respond together
3. Scenario Stress-Testing: enabling organisations to understand the compound impact of hybrid “Grey Zone” infrastructure scenarios on their organisation  hybrid “Gray Zone” disruptions.

As the BBC report underscores, the goal for 2026 is True Resilience: the ability to stay operational when the systems we take for granted are intentionally compromised.

Read the full BBC analysis here: European resources here

Read more from the IISS report here

Is your organisation prepared for the consequences of risks that are moving from the Europe to much closer to home?

Please get in touch if you’d like to discuss this further: support@controlledevents.com

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